Industrial Metals Update China’s refined output to remain strong China’s refined metals output mostly rose in 2021, despite power rationing in Q4. We expect output growth to continue in 2022, which is a factor underpinning our view that metals prices will fall. 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Outlook Prices to succumb to weaker demand before long Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in... 27th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Sky-high commodity prices on borrowed time Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Deteriorating risk appetite adds to price headwinds Despite falls in the prices of most other risky assets, including equities, commodities held up well this week. The prices of equities and commodities tracked each other relatively closely throughout... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) Although global aluminium output fell in y/y terms in December, it still grew strongly over 2021. The lifting of power restrictions in China has helped increase global output despite a reduction in... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Prices to come off the boil in 2022 After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs of an upturn in... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Despite a y/y fall in global aluminium output in November, it is still up strongly year-to-date. And it is likely to rise again from here as power restrictions in China are lifted and high prices... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
