Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Global steel production fell in y/y terms in February, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. Our expectation is that high energy costs and softer construction-led demand growth in China will... 22nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) High power prices in Europe continued to cause production curtailment in February but there were signs of a rebound in China’s production. Looking ahead, we expect supply to remain constrained for now... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Volatility to linger in commodity markets Commodity prices remained extremely volatile this week. After all the supply fears associated with the war on Ukraine, a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China raised concern about both demand and... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead for commodity prices The seemingly unstoppable rise in commodity prices gave way to sharp corrections this week, though the big picture is that prices remain extremely elevated. We suspect commodity prices will continue... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update High energy prices could pull plug on metals supply The high cost of energy will continue to support metals prices due to the energy-intensive nature of metal refining. If energy prices continue to climb and power rationing is introduced, we expect... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Sanctions on Russia to keep nickel price elevated Restrictions on Russian trade will probably lead to lower nickel supply and keep prices elevated. As a result, we have raised our nickel price forecast, despite a relatively subdued outlook for demand... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Global Steel Production (Jan.) Global steel production fell in y/y terms in January, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. It appears that subdued demand in China is acting as a constraint on output. Our expectation of... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global aluminium output fell by 4.5% y/y in the first month of 2022. A combination of high power prices in Europe and the New Year festival in China dragged down refined aluminium production. Looking... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices still have room to fall The recent agreement between the US and Japan will allow the majority of Japan’s steel exports to enter the US without levies. We expect this increased supply will combine with slower growth in demand... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
