Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) The acceleration in year-on-year production growth in September paints a prettier picture of supply than reality. The global economic downturn and high energy prices will weigh on supply from here. 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears trump supply fears, for now Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Constrained supply to limit the falls in energy prices Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect... 14th September 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s copper imports are the only bright spot Commodity import volumes remained lacklustre in July, consistent with subdued activity in heavy industry and construction. We think import growth should tick up in the coming months in response to... 8th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices rally, but room for further gains is limited The prices of most commodities across energy, metals and agriculturals rose this week. The common driver was investors dialling back their expectations of the aggressiveness of US monetary policy... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The jump in durable goods orders in June mainly reflected a surge in defence aircraft orders. Private equipment investment growth still looks to have slowed in the second quarter, although the latest... 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
