Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global aluminium production fell slightly in January compared to December, although the bigger picture is one of fairly steady production since the middle of last year. We expect production to respond... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly US inflation a downside risk to our price forecasts Most commodity prices fell this week due to concerns about the persistence of high inflation in the US. Data showed US CPI inflation coming in slightly stronger than expected in January, pushing up... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The impact of civil unrest in Peru on copper Anecdotal reports and high frequency data suggest that ongoing civil unrest in Peru is beginning to choke off activity at key copper mines. But, if recent history is anything to go by, output can... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Too soon for a sustainable rally We think prices will ease back in the coming months as optimism about China’s reopening is tempered and slower economic activity in advanced economies weighs on demand. However, the prospect of Fed... 3rd February 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russian petroleum product exports to struggle The EU’s ban on imports of Russian petroleum products will come into force on Sunday, which could raise EU fuel prices and weigh on Russia’s product exports. However, we suspect Russia will offer... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2022) Global steel output slumped in December and fell sharply in 2022 as a whole. With demand likely to be weak, at least in the first half of 2023, we do not expect a marked rebound any time soon. 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices poised to take a breather After rising sharply for much of this year, the Lunar New Year holiday in China meant that commodity prices generally took a bit of a pause this week. The only exceptions were natural gas prices... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed sharply late last year. But attention is now geared towards the rebound in China’s metal demand. We think there is a good chance that the rebound disappoints... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Jan. 2023) This is the first edition of a new monthly publication in which we will outline the latest moves in commodity futures markets and assess how they relate to our own view on fundamentals. Specifically... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surge in copper prices on shaky footing While China’s reopening has improved the prospects for copper demand, the price has, in our view, surged by more than can be justified by developments there alone. We expect the copper price to drop... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Spotlight shifts to developed economies The end of China’s zero-COVID policy continued to support most commodity prices this week, with many industrial metals prices extending their recent rallies. Economic activity appears to be recovering... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2% in 2022 from 2.7% in 2021. We forecast that weaker output growth in China and another difficult year in Europe will lead to even softer growth this year... 20th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Higher price forecasts due to China reopening China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
