Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.) Metals demand growth improved markedly in the third quarter, but demand is unlikely to hold up as global economic activity deteriorates further. 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) Global steel production growth is deteriorating a bit faster than we had thought. Even very flattering base effects failed to keep steel output growth in positive territory. With global economic... 22nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) While the latest year-on-year increase in global aluminium production is suggestive of an improving supply environment, output actually fell in absolute terms and probably has further to fall from... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply concerns to come to the fore before long The global recession will drag on zinc consumption even further in the coming months, probably leading to renewed price declines. But, towards the end of 2023, supply concerns should push the price... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs diverge, but point to persistent weakness China’s official and Caixin October manufacturing PMIs diverged, but the crux of the matter is that both are painting a picture of weak industrial demand. With the services sector also struggling due... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dance to the dollar’s tune Most commodity prices tracked the US dollar this week, falling sharply at the start of the week before staging a partial recovery in the latter half. Further dollar appreciation is likely given that... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to edge higher despite recession As the global economy tips into recession, aluminium demand growth will remain weak next year. However, we think supply growth will be even softer, pushing stocks lower and the price higher. 20th October 2022 · 4 mins read