Energy Chart Pack Oil market counting on extension to OPEC output cuts After looking like they may have run out of steam in September, the rallies in coal and oil prices returned with a vengeance last month. Indeed, speculation about supply restrictions – by OPEC for the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The large drop in stocks of crude and gasoline last week would appear, at first glance, to be a further sign that the oil market is tightening. But much of the reduction in crude stocks was due to... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities on a tear October was another strong month for the prices of industrial metals and oil as optimism about demand prevailed while prospects for supply deteriorated. We are more cautious, however. There are now... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Price of Brent likely to slip back below $60 Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $60pb mean for the Gulf? The rise in oil prices since the middle of the year could boost the Gulf’s oil export revenues by around $100bn, equal to 5% of regional GDP, on an annual basis. That would push current account... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A rebound in production and a slight rise in net imports led to an increase in crude stocks last week. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates fell as demand picked up and net imports... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in net imports and lower production contributed to a fall in crude inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks moved higher as demand for petroleum products slumped. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall any time soon President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China The more industrial commodities have had a good week, which was vindicated to some extent on Friday by data showing a surge in China’s commodity imports in September. Meanwhile, the minutes from the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s reduction in US crude stocks was mainly owing to lower production and a recovery in refinery inputs. Stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few weeks as demand gains momentum. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to shrug off calls for deeper oil output cuts Oil policy in the Gulf has been thrust back into the spotlight after the Saudi government disclosed details of Aramco’s export allocations for November. But there is less to this than meets the eye... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil market showing more signs of tightening OPEC production rose last month due to increases in Libya and Nigeria. However, estimates of slower non-OPEC output growth and stronger demand offer some hope for rebalancing. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: mining downturn should soon bottom out We estimate that a fall in mining output shaved about 0.4%-pts off annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q3. Mining output should stabilise over the coming year, but we doubt that reforms to the sector will... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
