OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We still think that OPEC’s forecast that the market will be in a large deficit this year is too ambitious. But we do expect it to be close to balance as higher prices depress demand growth and... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil price unlikely to spur investment boom The US decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord pushed crude oil prices up to four-year highs this week, but prices are probably still too low to trigger a renewed investment boom in the Canadian oil... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on US sanctions Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pull the US out of the nuclear agreement with Tehran and re-impose sanctions on Iran’s crude exports caused oil prices to jump this week. Meanwhile, China’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as net imports fell. In contrast, US crude production rose to another record. The recent surge in crude prices is likely to lead to even faster growth in... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Rising risks to supply boost oil prices Oil prices jumped in April as tensions escalated in the Middle East, especially the risk that the US will re-impose sanctions on Iran, and speculation increased that OPEC will extend its output cuts... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will global gas prices finally converge? The surge in availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which does not need pipeline infrastructure, has raised the prospect of a more fungible natural gas market. In this Energy Watch, we look at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports increased, demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Geopolitics trump fundamentals Commodity price indices surged in April despite a jump in the US dollar. Fading fears of a global trade war gave a lift to riskier assets more generally, while escalating tensions in the Middle East... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Trump and the Iran nuclear deal There’s a growing chance that US President Donald Trump will refuse to waive sanctions on Iran later this month. In this Update, we answer five key questions on the sanctions and the nuclear deal, as... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Quiet after the storm The earlier surge in oil and industrial metals prices came to an abrupt halt this week as oil stabilised and there were sharp falls in the prices of some metals. In particular, the US Treasury’s... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower prices later in the year... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its cuts The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
