OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We think that forecasts of even higher non-OPEC supply this year will push the cartel into increasing output at its meeting next week. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on Trump The EU, Canada and Mexico all announced retaliatory tarrifs on certain imports from the US this week. Although we doubt that this is the start of a full-blown trade war, the risk of one is greater now... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices and the boost to EM oil exporters There are already signs that the large EM oil exporters are responding to higher oil prices by scaling back austerity, which will help to drive stronger growth this year. But it’s notable that higher... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil increased last week due to higher net imports and strong growth in US crude production. Indeed, we expect the rapid rise in US output to weigh on crude prices later in the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow again The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Surging US output weighs on WTI Oil prices were volatile in May, rising in the first half of the month as President Trump re-imposed sanctions on Iran, then falling in the second half due to rising US production and speculation that... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Latin America? The rise in oil prices over the past six-nine months will have a mixed effect on economies in Latin America, with Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador the biggest winners, and Chile the biggest loser. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in focus It has been a busy week on the news front. The early part of the week was dominated by the political crisis in Italy, which weighed on the euro. Later in the week, President Trump announced that he... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities shrug off the stronger dollar Commodity price indices surged in May despite a jump in the US dollar. Oil prices got a boost from the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran which threaten to reduce oil output by up to 1m bpd... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a dip in net imports and strong demand from refineries. But the pick-up in crude production is more than sufficient to meet the increase in demand, which... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising oil prices won’t prevent a consumer recovery Fears that the recent rise in oil prices will severely dampen consumer spending are probably somewhat overdone. Indeed, even if oil prices remain at current levels, higher inflation would eat into... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising oil prices hold the economy back? The rally in crude oil prices in recent months ought to be a negative for a net oil importer like the US, but we don’t expect the increase, up to now at least, to prevent an acceleration in GDP growth... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil takes a tumble Agricultural commodities were some of the star performers this week as a truckers’ strike in Brazil raised concerns about supply. In contrast, metals prices struggled, as the trade talks between China... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will OPEC raise output? The next OPEC meeting on 22nd June will probably decide the direction of oil prices over the rest of the year. This Energy Watch will examine how OPEC is progressing towards the aims it set out when... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does the latest spike in oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices will act as a headwind to economic activity across the region, with the drag on growth likely to be biggest in Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. However, with monetary and... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
