Canada Economics Weekly Loonie proves resilient to slump in oil prices The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Energy in the headlines The recent divergence between oil and natural gas prices gathered momentum this week and although we think prices overshot, we remain of the view that the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019 is... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A combination of higher domestic production, low refinery runs and a fall in exports contributed to the eighth consecutive weekly build in US crude stocks. If nothing else, the latest data bolster the... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of 2015 Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of our oil price forecast Following the recent 20% slump, the price of oil is now close to our end-year forecast and we expect prices to fall further in 2019 as growth in demand slows and supply remains ample. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus A brief overview of 700 years of economic downturns The causes of economic downturns have changed over time, from harvest failures and wars, to monetary policy, oil shocks and financial crises. Looking ahead, we think the next major global downturn... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC has revised down its forecast for oil demand in 2019 and raised its non-OPEC supply projection. This is consistent with our view that the market will be in surplus next year, which will weigh on... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Bear market in oil to persist in 2019 The price of oil (Brent) has dropped by around a fifth from its October peak and we expect it to continue to fall to $60 per barrel by end-2019. Supporting this view is our forecast that the oil... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil supply fears allayed for now The last-minute waivers on US sanctions granted to eight of Iran’s largest customers suggest supply in the oil market should be more than ample, underpinning our forecast of a further fall in oil... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased, boosted by an unexpectedly large jump in US oil output and a small rise in net-imports of crude. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks edged lower. The latest data are consistent with... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil slumps as supply fears fade Oil prices plummeted in October on the back of clear signs of a pick-up in supply, rising US crude stocks and concerns about slower global growth. US sanctions on Iran’s oil may bolster prices in the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
