Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal means weaker growth in the Gulf in 2019 The deal reached by OPEC to reduce oil output means that the economic slowdown in the Gulf that we had expected from the middle of next year will now occur earlier and be more severe. Accordingly, we... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Surging supply weighs on oil prices Oil prices slumped in November as rising production in the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia prompted fears of oversupply. The market is now hoping that OPEC and its allies will agree to cut output, which... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks fell sharply at end-November for the most part owing to a jump in US exports, which could be sustained given that crude prices in the US are still markedly lower than elsewhere. 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: is energy reform now dead? The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch What to expect from the OPEC meeting We expect OPEC and its allies to agree to cut oil output at this week’s OPEC meeting. This should at least put a floor under prices and may, depending on the size of the cut, boost prices. But with... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update GDP growth heading toward zero in first quarter The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar leaving OPEC not a game changer Qatar’s decision to pull out of the oil cartel, OPEC, is unlikely to have a major impact on global energy markets but it further cements the country’s feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The calm before the storm For the most part, commodity prices moved in a narrow range this week, but this relative stability may come to an abrupt end soon. Presidents Trump and Xi are set to dine together on Saturday at the... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Cheaper oil both giveth and taketh away Lower oil prices will batter Africa’s big oil exporters. But they will benefit Africa’s oil importers, which make up the majority of the region’s GDP. Lower petrol prices will, for instance, sap... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower oil prices shouldn’t derail Russia’s recovery The latest fall in oil prices will reduce Russia’s export revenues, but the budget and current account should remain in surplus and a significant shift in fiscal (or monetary) policy is unlikely. As a... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
