Energy Chart Pack Energy prices remain under pressure Oil prices continued to fall last month and we expect them to remain subdued given that, for now at least, the market is more than comfortably supplied. That said, the production cut announced by OPEC... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil sets the tone for 2019 The price of oil plunged again this week but, while we are negative on the outlook for 2019, we think that the latest falls are being driven more by bearish investor sentiment than fundamentals. After... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz maintains upbeat tone despite oil price slump In an interview this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz seemed fairly relaxed about the economic outlook. But with inflationary pressures fading, oil prices falling again and exporters... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A small drop in US stocks coupled with signs of solid growth in products demand suggest that some of the market’s fears about oversupply may be overdone. We continue to expect that the output cuts... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Risks still lie to the downside As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Little festive cheer for commodities The prices of most commodities, including oil, traded in a narrow range this week, at least until Friday when weak economic data out of China prompted a synchronised fall in prices. We suspect that... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC cuts, Qatari Emir shuns GCC, Oman dollar bonds The OPEC meeting concluded last Friday with a deal to cut oil output but we don’t think that this will provide a lasting boost to oil prices and, overall, the deal is set to result in slower GDP... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks edged lower in early December as domestic output fell back and inputs to refineries remained high. Stocks may fall further in the coming weeks, if refinery activity remains strong. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) Amid growing concerns over a glut in the market, OPEC and its allies pledged to cut output. We estimate that these cuts will remove much of the apparent excess supply in the market, but think that the... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in demand to weigh on oil prices We expect a combination of slower global GDP growth and persistent rises in US shale output to lead to lower oil prices in 2019. Our end-2019 forecast for Brent is now $55 per barrel ($60 previously). 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Stronger growth in Saudi Arabia won’t last Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated in Q3 but last week’s OPEC deal to cut oil output means that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in early 2019. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch IMO 2020 not a major issue for oil With the upcoming change to regulations on marine fuel sulphur content due to come into effect on January 2020, this Energy Watch will examine the implications for the oil market. While we don’t... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Domestic weakness in China curbs commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes softened last month, underpinning our view that slower growth in the broader economy will take its toll on China’s commodity demand and prices. The only exception was... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC gives a boost to prices in the near term The 1.2m bpd output cut announced by OPEC and its allies today should absorb much of the oil market surplus in the short term. As such, it has sparked a rally in oil prices and in commodities more... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
