Commodities Weekly Politics and policy may take centre stage Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Hard to be positive on 2019 Our forecast of slower global growth next year points to weaker growth in commodities demand and lower prices. Of course, the prices of many non-oil commodities have already fallen sharply this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped again as exports fell back sharply. The latest data are likely to have been distorted by Hurricane Michael but crude stocks have been building for some weeks and should... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi Arabia unlikely to resort to “oil weapon” We do not expect Saudi Arabia to cut oil production in response to US criticism over a missing journalist, not least because it will want to preserve the “anti-Iran axis” with the US. However, if the... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling equities, rising petrol, climbing borrowing costs The recent plunge in equity prices, surge in petrol prices and rise in borrowing costs all triggered by developments overseas won’t hurt the Australian economy much. But they do add to other headwinds... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Brent/WTI spread to narrow in 2019 There is now a large differential between the prices of US-based WTI oil and the more international benchmark, Brent. In our view, this spread could widen further in the near term, but we expect it to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil is losing touch with reality The latest leg-up in the oil price, to around $85 per barrel, was fuelled by persistent fears of a supply shortfall. However, we remain of the view that the market’s worst fears will not be realised... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil at a four-year high Oil prices have surged in the last month as the market priced in a slump in Iran’s production due to the re-imposition of US sanctions. However, there are now clear signs of weaker demand, which... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
