OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC has revised down its forecast for oil demand in 2019 and raised its non-OPEC supply projection. This is consistent with our view that the market will be in surplus next year, which will weigh on... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Bear market in oil to persist in 2019 The price of oil (Brent) has dropped by around a fifth from its October peak and we expect it to continue to fall to $60 per barrel by end-2019. Supporting this view is our forecast that the oil... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil supply fears allayed for now The last-minute waivers on US sanctions granted to eight of Iran’s largest customers suggest supply in the oil market should be more than ample, underpinning our forecast of a further fall in oil... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased, boosted by an unexpectedly large jump in US oil output and a small rise in net-imports of crude. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks edged lower. The latest data are consistent with... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil slumps as supply fears fade Oil prices plummeted in October on the back of clear signs of a pick-up in supply, rising US crude stocks and concerns about slower global growth. US sanctions on Iran’s oil may bolster prices in the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes turn to the US The US is set to take centre stage next week as it re-imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil on Monday. While this may spark bargain hunting, after this week’s slump in prices, any relief rally should be... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Sugar on a real high, but oil prices slump Commodity prices, including oil, fell on concerns about softer economic growth and some appreciation of the US dollar. We expect a weaker demand outlook to continue to weigh on the prices of the more... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks rose for a sixth consecutive week boosted by higher US oil output and another release from the SPR. That said, product stocks fell sharply but we think this has more to do with subdued... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught up in market jitters Concerns about the outlook for demand, amid sharp declines in global equity prices, are weighing on the prices of most commodities. Even the oil market, which has been focussed on supply issues for... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Softer demand to weigh on oil and coal Oil and coal prices look set to ease back over the next year as slower global economic activity constrains demand. At the same time, recent high prices have been incentivising supply. In contrast... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi markets not out of the woods, oil prices drop The rally in Saudi Arabia’s stock market today has partially reversed the losses suffered since Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance hit the headlines. But the threat of sanctions, coupled with falling oil... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although crude stocks rose again, a larger-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks stole the headlines. However, we think gasoline stocks will rise again when refineries come out of maintenance. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
