Energy Chart Pack Oil supply fears fading fast The price of oil rose a little last month owing in part to supply concerns regarding the US decision to end sanction waivers on Iran’s oil exports. We now expect Iran’s output to fall further and have... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After US crude stocks reached their highest since September 2017, the beginning of May saw a partial reversal in recent builds. The latest stock draw was fuelled by a fall in net imports and an... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A US-China trade deal could lift commodity prices The prices of oil and iron ore made further gains in April owing to continued supply-side concerns, but the prices of most other commodities fell. Indeed, we also expect iron ore and oil prices to... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in net imports and the recovery in domestic production led crude stocks higher last week. However, we expect stocks to start to be drawn down in the coming weeks as the refinery maintenance... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The collapse in US net imports drove crude oil stocks lower last week. We expect further slides in crude stocks as the maintenance season for refineries ends. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
