Energy Update OPEC+ will not succeed in lowering crude stocks We think that the OPEC+ production cuts will fail to reduce global crude stocks. Instead, we expect soft demand growth and rising global supply, particularly from the US, to push stocks higher in the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jul.) OPEC sees demand for its oil falling in 2020 as non-OPEC producers take market share owing to its policy of output restraint. It forecasts that growth in global demand will be unchanged next year... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although the main cause of last week’s sharp fall in commercial crude oil stocks is not clear, it does seem that the recent shutdown of the Philadelphia Energy Solution’s refinery has had little... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Weak demand to keep a lid on oil prices Oil prices rose a little in June on a combination of escalating US-Iran tensions, signs of a truce in the US-China trade war and the expectation that OPEC+ would extend its production cuts. However... 4th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in net imports meant that commercial crude oil stocks fell by less-than-expected last week. We expect stocks to continue to drop in the weeks ahead in line with the seasonal uptick in gasoline... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ output restraint won’t prevent prices falling OPEC+ has agreed to rollover its current output quotas for nine months, but weak demand means that we still expect the market to move into a surplus and oil prices to fall by end-2019. 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ appears likely to extend its output cuts We expect OPEC+ to reaffirm its current output quotas for another six months when it meets next week. The group is likely to justify the move by highlighting high stocks and subdued demand prospects... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report We think last week’s unexpectedly large decline in US crude stocks can be explained more by the fall in OPEC production than by surging domestic demand. That said, we do not think that the latest drop... 26th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a recent run of large builds, last week’s drawdowns in US stocks of both commercial crude and gasoline point to an improvement in US oil demand. But with stocks still relatively high, we think... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jun.) OPEC highlighted risks to demand and high stocks in its latest report which, coupled with lower prices, suggest that there will be little appetite for increasing production when the group meets later... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to rise this week, despite the increase in the refinery utilisation rate, a fall in net imports and lower production. This put further downward pressure on prices, which had... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed easing not a panacea for commodities Driven in large part by investors pricing in a greater degree of interest rate cuts in the US, the gold price leapt to its highest level in over a year this week. That same anticipation of policy... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil‘s plunge makes rollover of OPEC cuts more likely Caught up in the broader sell-off in risky assets triggered by the latest escalation in trade tensions, oil prices have plunged in recent weeks, and the prices of most other energy commodities have... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
