Commodities Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Seasonal factors to boost gas and coal prices in Q4 Energy prices diverged in September. There were strong gains in European gas and coal prices in part owing to strikes at France’s utilities at a time when seasonal demand is also picking up. Meanwhile... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased last week as inputs to refineries fell. We expect crude stocks to continue to rise in the coming months as a weaker US economy leads to softer growth in gasoline demand. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output rebounds, expat levy, Thomas Cook Saudi Arabia has managed to get the bulk of its oil output back online following the Abqaiq attacks but, with oil prices drifting back towards $60pb, the debate may quickly shift to the need to extend... 26th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose on the back of higher US production and a fall in crude inputs to refineries. Stocks could ease back again in the month ahead if the loss of Saudi oil lifts demand for US crude... 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Another oil shock would probably see the dollar rise, not fall Although the oil price has fallen back since the weekend’s attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, it could surge again if there are further strikes or if tensions in the Middle East... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week largely owing to a decline in refinery inputs. Relatively high stocks will continue to reassure the market that there are ample supplies to cover outrages in Saudi... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Saudi oil attacks add to headwinds for world economy The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another sharp fall in US stocks suggests crude demand is holding up well, despite some signs of deterioration in economic activity data. However, we suspect that crude stocks will soon start to build... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices. 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
