Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose this week as the refinery rate ticked down and net imports picked up. We don’t think that this trend will continue as we believe that OPEC exports to the US will continue to fall. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks slumped again. The drivers were an increase in the refinery rate and a huge jump in exports. What’s more, this occurred despite production rising. We expect that as refineries come out of... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply and we expect them to continue to fall in the coming weeks as refineries come out of maintenance. However, higher refinery activity should also start to stabilise gasoline... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Unravelling the shifting dynamics of spreads There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The relationship between oil prices, rigs and output Theoretically, there should be a relationship between the price of oil, the number of oil rigs actively drilling and oil production. However, the relationship appears to have broken down in the past... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to remain low, rates cuts coming Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back sharply in recent months and is likely to remain low over the coming quarters. With growth also set to slow, we expect some central banks to start... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped, largely owing to an increase in net imports. In contrast, product stocks fell, which is partly a seasonal phenomenon but does suggest that US consumer demand is holding up well... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Boost to oil from lower supply unlikely to last The price of oil continued to climb in February as the US and China inched towards a trade deal, and Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut output further. However, we still think that prices will... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil rebound won’t prevent drop in energy investment The negative outlook for oil prices, together with Canadian oil firms’ high debt levels, regulatory uncertainty and capacity constraints, suggest that energy investment will fall this year. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG price slump is not all about the weather The plunge in the spot LNG price is in large part the result of a mild northern hemisphere winter. As such, prices may rebound if the weather normalises, but rapid growth in supply will prevent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
