Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again this week partly due to a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which caused prices to drop sharply today. Despite this, we still think that crude... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Europe’s oil security problem to diminish over time The recent problem of oil contamination in Russia presents an upside risk to our oil price forecast in the short-term. If this develops into a longer-term theme, it could pose a serious risk to... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Extension of OPEC cuts not an open-and-shut case Market moves in the wake of this weekend’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting suggest that some investors expect OPEC to roll over output cuts when they expire in June. In contrast... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks returned to their recent run of unseasonal builds last week. This was despite the refinery utilisation rate, net imports and production all implying a drawdown. That said, there is... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) Following the recent escalation of US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, attention has been focused on OPEC’s next move. An upward revision to global demand for OPEC crude could give some members... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil supply fears fading fast The price of oil rose a little last month owing in part to supply concerns regarding the US decision to end sanction waivers on Iran’s oil exports. We now expect Iran’s output to fall further and have... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After US crude stocks reached their highest since September 2017, the beginning of May saw a partial reversal in recent builds. The latest stock draw was fuelled by a fall in net imports and an... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A US-China trade deal could lift commodity prices The prices of oil and iron ore made further gains in April owing to continued supply-side concerns, but the prices of most other commodities fell. Indeed, we also expect iron ore and oil prices to... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
