Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa falters in Q4, SSA oil production tumbles Grim output data for October and widespread power cuts added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. Even if the country does dodge a recession, recent weakness suggests... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC kept output slightly below its quota in November. We expect that OPEC will produce within its new quota until it expires in March 2020, but that Saudi Arabia will do most of the heavy lifting. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Rising supply to weigh on natural gas prices Warmer-than-expected weather, amid subdued global economic growth, put downward pressure on the prices of coal and LNG since the start of November. In contrast, the price of oil rose on the back of... 9th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over output cuts There has been mounting speculation that OPEC+ is set to agree deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, we still think Saudi Arabia’s concerns about its loss of market share, and little appetite... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell last week on the back of increased refinery throughput. However, with stocks well above their historical average, and with the US economy set to slow, this latest report doesn’t... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Russia to put OPEC+ compliance at risk There is a high risk that a ramp-up in production in Russia pushes OPEC+ output above quota. While we don’t expect this to have a significant impact on prices it would be an additional reason for... 25th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still on the sidelines The prices of most industrial commodities traded in a narrow range this week in part owing to stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US and elsewhere. However, the bigger picture is that global... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
