Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report We think last week’s unexpectedly large decline in US crude stocks can be explained more by the fall in OPEC production than by surging domestic demand. That said, we do not think that the latest drop... 26th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a recent run of large builds, last week’s drawdowns in US stocks of both commercial crude and gasoline point to an improvement in US oil demand. But with stocks still relatively high, we think... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jun.) OPEC highlighted risks to demand and high stocks in its latest report which, coupled with lower prices, suggest that there will be little appetite for increasing production when the group meets later... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to rise this week, despite the increase in the refinery utilisation rate, a fall in net imports and lower production. This put further downward pressure on prices, which had... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed easing not a panacea for commodities Driven in large part by investors pricing in a greater degree of interest rate cuts in the US, the gold price leapt to its highest level in over a year this week. That same anticipation of policy... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil‘s plunge makes rollover of OPEC cuts more likely Caught up in the broader sell-off in risky assets triggered by the latest escalation in trade tensions, oil prices have plunged in recent weeks, and the prices of most other energy commodities have... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude and products jumped in the latest weekly data, despite slightly stronger refinery run rates. The apparent weakness of US demand and higher stocks will make it difficult for OPEC+... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in the driving seat Trade was the big theme this week once again, with China suggesting it could restrict exports of rare earth elements to the US, as well as a rise in US-Mexico trade tensions. Consequently, the prices... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a number of surprising builds in US commercial crude stocks, last week’s small drawdown perhaps signals that a summer fall in stocks may be looming. If we are right, and stocks continue to... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
