Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC production fell again in December, led once more by Saudi Arabia. We continue to think that OPEC will maintain its production restraint for the remainder of 2020 to support prices. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is America at risk of Dutch disease? The surge in crude oil and natural gas production over the past decade has eliminated the petroleum-related trade deficit, but there is a risk that, echoing what happened in other countries that... 9th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas and coal prices to fall further in 2020 The easing of US-China trade tensions and the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has caused oil prices to surge in recent weeks. In contrast, the prices of natural gas and coal have slumped... 9th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India. Further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could therefore be economically... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Update US commercial crude stocks to taper off in 2020 US commercial crude stocks remained high in 2019 owing principally to strong domestic production and increased Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. Looking ahead, we think that a further rise... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the risks ESG factors pose to fossil fuels ESG rules won’t significantly deter investment in International Oil Companies (IOCs) or reduce fossil fuels production. Instead, output is likely to be guided by underlying oil prices, which we expect... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
