Global Markets Update Another oil shock would probably see the dollar rise, not fall Although the oil price has fallen back since the weekend’s attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, it could surge again if there are further strikes or if tensions in the Middle East... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week largely owing to a decline in refinery inputs. Relatively high stocks will continue to reassure the market that there are ample supplies to cover outrages in Saudi... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Saudi oil attacks add to headwinds for world economy The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another sharp fall in US stocks suggests crude demand is holding up well, despite some signs of deterioration in economic activity data. However, we suspect that crude stocks will soon start to build... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC kept output below quota in August. We think that it will continue to under-produce in 2020, particularly as the Saudi Aramco IPO nears, and that this will be one factor supporting prices. 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas demand to prove resilient Oil prices continued to fall last month on concerns about a slowing global economy and rising US-China protectionism, but we expect them to stabilise in the coming months given supply constraints. In... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge weekly drawdown in US crude stocks clearly soothed some of the near-term fears surrounding softer demand, as evidenced by today’s gain in prices. But our forecast for a slowdown in the US... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While most of last week’s draw in US commercial crude stocks was down to a drop in net imports, the latest figures showed another strong week for both inputs to refineries and gasoline demand. But... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to remain low The dramatic narrowing of the spread between the prices of Brent and WTI oil in the last month, reflects a structural change in the market as logistical bottlenecks in the US are being resolved. As... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Low oil prices mean focused pain & diffuse benefits The fall in oil prices this month will create both winners and losers in Africa. But the winners’ gains will be small and spread across dozens of countries, whereas pain will be concentrated in a few... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) While another cut in Saudi Arabian oil output pushed OPEC production further below its quota in July, we doubt that the Kingdom is on the cusp of taking larger action in order to support oil prices. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
