Commodities Update WTI tumbles below zero as the oil storage runs out The spot price of WTI turned negative yesterday in large part owing to the nature of trading in the futures market. That said, the price slump has some fundamental underpinning as demand is very weak... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations The collapse in oil prices has led to renewed pressure on dollar pegs in the Gulf and, while there could be some positive effects on balance sheets from devaluations, the costs would be politically... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update SPR buying to have limited impact on oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent months has incentivised governments to increase their strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs). However, we don’t think that it will provide a boost to prices. 17th April 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC production surged in March after talks between OPEC and its allies broke down. While we expect output to remain relatively high in April, OPEC production should be much lower from May onwards... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude and product stocks soared again last week as the virus-related disruption continued to weigh on demand. We expect crude stocks to rise further in the coming weeks, but the recent OPEC+ deal... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts mean Gulf slump to be even deeper The deal struck by OPEC and other oil producers to cut oil output sharply over the coming months will help to put a floor under oil prices, but the reduction in output simply adds to the reasons to... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Record output cut provides scant relief for now The unprecedented 9.7m bpd output cut announced by OPEC+ will merely reduce the oversupply of oil in the second quarter. But assuming full compliance, and an involuntary drop in North American... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What to expect from the OPEC+ Meeting There is huge uncertainty about the outcome of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. For what it’s worth, we suspect that a large and unconditional output cut is unlikely. Even if we are wrong, we think a... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Oil deal wouldn’t alter the short-term outlook for petro-currencies We doubt that the rally in oil prices of the past couple of days will last, even if Russia and Saudi Arabia agree a deal to cut output. And while we do think that oil prices will rebound in the second... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf endure oil at $20pb? Brent crude is closing in on $20pb and, if there are no signs of a recovery in the coming months, the chances that Saudi Arabia pushes for fresh oil output cuts will grow. Meanwhile, we are... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Oil sector likely to lag any strong recovery in risky assets While most risky assets have bounced back over the past week, oil prices have fallen further and we doubt that they will recover anytime soon as oil producers compete to flood the market. 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Update No let-up for oil anytime soon The latest leg-down in oil prices is not so surprising given that demand is collapsing at a time of rising supply. We think oil prices will only pick up if, as we expect, economic activity revives... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to fall to its lowest level since 2014 The coronavirus is disrupting global economic activity by much more than we had previously thought. As a result, we now expect global oil demand to fall by 6.5% in 2020 to just under 94m bpd. 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose a touch last week. We expect bigger increases in the coming weeks given that refineries have announced plans to curb output in response to the virus-related slump in product... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
