Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India. Further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could therefore be economically... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Update US commercial crude stocks to taper off in 2020 US commercial crude stocks remained high in 2019 owing principally to strong domestic production and increased Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. Looking ahead, we think that a further rise... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the risks ESG factors pose to fossil fuels ESG rules won’t significantly deter investment in International Oil Companies (IOCs) or reduce fossil fuels production. Instead, output is likely to be guided by underlying oil prices, which we expect... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa falters in Q4, SSA oil production tumbles Grim output data for October and widespread power cuts added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. Even if the country does dodge a recession, recent weakness suggests... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC kept output slightly below its quota in November. We expect that OPEC will produce within its new quota until it expires in March 2020, but that Saudi Arabia will do most of the heavy lifting. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Rising supply to weigh on natural gas prices Warmer-than-expected weather, amid subdued global economic growth, put downward pressure on the prices of coal and LNG since the start of November. In contrast, the price of oil rose on the back of... 9th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
