OPEC Watch Collapse in prices to force OPEC+ to cut output We expect OPEC+ to agree to an emergency output cut of an additional 1m bpd for at least three months at its meeting later this week. This should, at a minimum, put a temporary floor under prices. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A Democrat could spark higher oil prices We think that, at least initially, the energy proposals of a Democratic President would support oil prices by curbing supply more than demand. 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC production fell sharply in January, but this was mainly the result of supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Otherwise, there was little indication in the latest OPEC monthly report that the group... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market to flip into a deficit after Q1 The economic disruption caused by the coronavirus means that we now expect the oil market to be in a surplus in Q1 2020, as opposed to the deficit that we had previously envisioned. However, providing... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Middle East oil supply shocks and the risk premium In this Energy Watch, we look at how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically affected the risk premium in the oil price and what could happen to this premium in the future. We... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Virus fears to drive prices for some time yet Commodity prices, and energy prices in particular, have been hard hit by the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the prospect of lower global commodities demand. There is still too much uncertainty... 4th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Outlook Oil to outperform Provided that the coronavirus is contained, a gradual pick-up in global economic growth at a time of constrained supply should set the scene for higher oil prices in 2020. In contrast, we expect the... 30th January 2020 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC production fell again in December, led once more by Saudi Arabia. We continue to think that OPEC will maintain its production restraint for the remainder of 2020 to support prices. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is America at risk of Dutch disease? The surge in crude oil and natural gas production over the past decade has eliminated the petroleum-related trade deficit, but there is a risk that, echoing what happened in other countries that... 9th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas and coal prices to fall further in 2020 The easing of US-China trade tensions and the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has caused oil prices to surge in recent weeks. In contrast, the prices of natural gas and coal have slumped... 9th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
