OPEC Watch Q1 OPEC+ output to be less than headlines suggest We think that OPEC+ production will rise by less than the new agreement allows. Some countries will make compensatory cuts, while weak Q1 demand could prevent monthly rises in February and March. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ provides more questions than answers After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack On the way up The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most energy commodities in November as they have raised the prospect of higher demand in 2021. We anticipate a particularly strong rebound in... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks dipped last week as net imports sank. Meanwhile, with COVID-19-related restrictions now present in a number of large states, we suspect that demand will remain low for a few months yet. 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Vaccines mean higher commodity demand in 2021 A flurry of positive news surrounding effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most commodity prices in November, as a faster easing of virus containment measures next year should provide a lift to... 1st December 2020 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over supply cut, despite price rise We expect OPEC+ to extend its current 7.7m bpd supply cuts for at least another three months at its next meeting. Although prices have rallied in recent weeks on hopes of a faster recovery in demand... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell slightly last week, while implied product demand also ticked down. And, with new US virus cases still at very high levels, we think that it probably won’t be until next... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks rose last week as rebounding output offset increased refinery activity. Meanwhile, with new US virus cases continuing to rise, we suspect that the risks to demand are now firmly to the... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch What can rig counts tell us about oil supply? In this Energy Watch, we argue that data on the number of rigs actively drilling for oil can offer a window into future oil production, but that the relationship is far from perfect and the time lags... 17th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US commercial crude stocks last week is a stark reminder that, despite the recent optimism surrounding a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the recovery in oil prices still has a long way to go. 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s oil production jumped in October as Libyan output surged. But we expect that OPEC and its allies will extend their current level of supply cuts into early 2021, which will keep ex-Libya supply... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Fresh lockdowns to weigh on European oil demand New national lockdowns in Europe have led us to revise down our oil demand forecasts for Q4. But the decline is likely to be much smaller than in Q2, not least because the economic hit will be less... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update No light at the end of the tunnel for thermal coal Despite a small revival in thermal coal prices ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, we doubt it will be long before they start to test historic lows again. And if, as we expect, the COVID-19... 5th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
