Emerging Europe Economics Update Boost from low oil prices to be limited by coronavirus The collapse in oil prices will reduce current high rates of inflation in Central Europe and provide some respite for those oil importers with more fragile external positions (Turkey, Romania and... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we facing a re-run of the 2014-16 oil price crash? The recent oil price shock has invoked comparisons with 2014-16, when prices fell to similarly low levels and large EMs – notably Brazil and Russia – entered crises. But this time around, we think... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) OPEC production slumped in February owing to supply disruption in Libya. However, given that the current output agreement expires in March and with no replacement deal, we expect OPEC+ oil production... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: budget deficit to widen after oil price slump Malaysia’s new finance minister, Tengku Zafrul, faces the unenviable challenge of dealing with a rapidly deteriorating fiscal position at the same time as the economy is slowing sharply. While the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Saudi Arabia weather low oil prices? The fact that the fall in oil prices will cause Saudi Arabia’s government to run a large budget deficit has prompted suggestions that it might have to shift oil policy to prop up prices. But the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil price slump - this time it is different Oil prices have crashed by about 40% since end-January owing to the coronavirus-related demand shock and the collapse of OPEC+ output restraint. Following previous oil price crashes (2008 and 2015-16)... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to continue to underperform other commodities Even before OPEC+ abruptly abandoned output cuts, oil had fared far worse than most other commodities. Some of this can be explained by oil’s greater use in the forms of economic activity most... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Lower oil prices offer small comfort amid downturn As the world’s largest oil importer, China stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. But the boost to growth will be modest and won’t make up for the hit to Chinese exports from weaker global... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Counting the cost of lower oil prices The latest fall in oil prices will aggravate Venezuela’s crisis and increase the risk of a sovereign default in Ecuador. Elsewhere, there is likely to be a hit to growth in Mexico and Colombia. And... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the oil market rout The sharp drop in oil prices won’t cause major economic strains in Saudi Arabia or Russia, suggesting that they will raise output and oil prices will remain low over the course of this year. But... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Plunge in oil price another short-term headwind The plunge in global oil prices should be close to neutral for the US, but we suspect it will still knock a few tenths off annualised GDP growth in the second quarter, as the big hit to mining... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s oil policy shift and what it means for the Gulf The sharp fall in oil prices today will push current account and budget positions into deficit across the Gulf, but these can be financed from large savings for some time. Dollar pegs should stay... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update It’s a war for market share, not price Against a backdrop of a coronavirus-related slump in demand, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned efforts to balance the oil market and is instead aiming to protect market share. Its pledge to... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Oil price slump not a positive for global economy While falling oil prices have historically been deemed a net positive for global demand, there are several reasons to think that the latest slump will only add to the immediate headwinds facing the... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the collapse in oil prices The tailspin in global oil prices will push Russia’s current account and budget balances into deficit but shouldn’t create severe strains in the economy. It would probably take a steeper fall in... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices still searching for the bottom Commodity prices continued to fall in February as the coronavirus, which started in China, spread to most other regions of the world and sparked fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. We... 4th March 2020 · 8 mins read
