Asia Economics Update What do lower oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But that benefit won’t materialise until consumer spending recovers. For Malaysia... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lower oil prices unlikely to hold most equity markets back While the plunge in oil prices may have played some part in yesterday’s equity market sell-off, we doubt that oil will have that big of a bearing on most developed world equity indices over the coming... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped again last week, despite a small fall in production and a hefty drop in imports. Stocks are likely to continue to climb until the lockdowns are lifted, but the pace of increase... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The oil market rout, devaluations and defaults Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries should be able to weather the collapse in oil prices without abandoning dollar pegs, and Russia will still run looser fiscal policy this year than last. But... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of low oil prices on Mexico The plunge in oil prices is yet another drag on Mexico’s freefalling economy, and may hasten a move by Pemex to restructure its external debts. The government’s lacklustre response to the economic... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Oil sector woes will hold back the recovery Whether negative or not, oil prices are now far below operating breakeven costs for many oil sands projects. That means firms are slashing production, and we doubt this lost output will be quick to... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update WTI tumbles below zero as the oil storage runs out The spot price of WTI turned negative yesterday in large part owing to the nature of trading in the futures market. That said, the price slump has some fundamental underpinning as demand is very weak... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations The collapse in oil prices has led to renewed pressure on dollar pegs in the Gulf and, while there could be some positive effects on balance sheets from devaluations, the costs would be politically... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update SPR buying to have limited impact on oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent months has incentivised governments to increase their strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs). However, we don’t think that it will provide a boost to prices. 17th April 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC production surged in March after talks between OPEC and its allies broke down. While we expect output to remain relatively high in April, OPEC production should be much lower from May onwards... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude and product stocks soared again last week as the virus-related disruption continued to weigh on demand. We expect crude stocks to rise further in the coming weeks, but the recent OPEC+ deal... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts mean Gulf slump to be even deeper The deal struck by OPEC and other oil producers to cut oil output sharply over the coming months will help to put a floor under oil prices, but the reduction in output simply adds to the reasons to... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Record output cut provides scant relief for now The unprecedented 9.7m bpd output cut announced by OPEC+ will merely reduce the oversupply of oil in the second quarter. But assuming full compliance, and an involuntary drop in North American... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What to expect from the OPEC+ Meeting There is huge uncertainty about the outcome of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. For what it’s worth, we suspect that a large and unconditional output cut is unlikely. Even if we are wrong, we think a... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
