Commodities Update Taking a look at our oil price forecasts In light of the recent revision to our China economic growth forecast and our expectation that the rebound in equities has further to run, we have revisited our oil price forecasts for the year ahead... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) May saw the latest OPEC production cuts come into force, with compliance among members fairly good. That said, a gradual pick-up in oil prices and demand, together with the prospect of some Libyan... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ is obviously worried about demand As expected, OPEC+ extended its 9.7m bpd production cut for another month (until end-July). Given that prices have rallied strongly in recent weeks, the group’s caution reflects the still-high level... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Oil gallops ahead of other energy commodities The gradual easing of coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions around the world, along with falling global production, has supported the price of oil recently. By contrast, persistent oversupply and... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ to extend duration of deeper output cuts OPEC+ is expected to meet in the next few days. Despite reports of rifts amongst its members, we think that it will agree to extend its current 9.7m bpd production cut for at least another month. 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report We think that the market is right to dismiss the latest chunky build in US crude stocks as it was largely driven by a rise in imports, which is likely to prove a one-off. Instead, a further fall in US... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Geopolitics take a back seat … for now Quarantine measures associated with COVID-19 have seen geopolitical disputes, such as US-Iran tensions, seemingly fall under the radar of energy traders. That said, the national security law imposed... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week, adding to growing evidence that the US oil market has passed the worst. That said, a sustained recovery is not on the cards for some time yet... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC production jumped up in April, but this will prove a one-off given the agreed output cuts from May onwards. We expect OPEC compliance with the cuts to be fairly good in the coming months as... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Global oil supply to fall to a five-year low Low oil prices, OPEC+ production cuts and delays to investment should reduce global oil supply by over 6% this year. This is one reason why we expect prices to end the year higher. 11th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Labour market conditions even worse than they look The labour market is in a far worse place than even the bleak headlines suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 13% in April, but it would be 30% if we included all the people that lost jobs or did not... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Texas regulator unlikely to succeed where OPEC failed Next week, the Texas Railroad Commission could mandate measures to curb oil production in Texas for the first time since the 1970s. However, even if they do decide to curtail output, we think that the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week, but the pace of the builds is showing more signs of slowing. We expect stocks to continue to increase until the coronavirus-related quarantine measures are fully... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Outlook Little upside for prices until lockdowns are lifted The global spread of the coronavirus has dealt an extraordinary blow to energy demand, and – for as long as the containment measures remain in place – it is hard to see much upside for prices. However... 28th April 2020 · 17 mins read
Energy Update Compliance by OPEC’s allies to improve over time OPEC’s allies recently agreed to cut output from May. While compliance with quotas is usually sub-par, we think that adherence to the quotas will be greater this time, in part because oil prices are... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
