Energy Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks declined in the latest data as net imports plummeted. But refinery activity remains subdued and the latest virus-related restrictions could see lower product demand in the coming weeks... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC cut its 2021 oil demand forecast in its latest report, which we suspect could delay further easing of its production cuts early next year. This should help put a floor under prices. 14th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices begin to claw back lost ground Despite the re-introduction of lockdown measures in some US states, industrial commodities prices continued to rise this week on the back of ongoing hopes of a vaccine-induced economic boom next year... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Reviewing the risks to our 2021 oil price forecast We forecast that a substantial pick-up in oil demand in the second half of next year amidst a backdrop of constrained supply will push Brent oil prices to around $60 per barrel by end-2021. That said... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge counter-seasonal build in US commercial crude stocks last week was driven by a surge in net imports. We expect that it will take some time before stocks fall back to more “normal” levels. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch Q1 OPEC+ output to be less than headlines suggest We think that OPEC+ production will rise by less than the new agreement allows. Some countries will make compensatory cuts, while weak Q1 demand could prevent monthly rises in February and March. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ provides more questions than answers After much wrangling, this week OPEC+ agreed to a partial roll over of its current collective output cut into next year. But the obvious divisions between members of the group mean the question marks... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack On the way up The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most energy commodities in November as they have raised the prospect of higher demand in 2021. We anticipate a particularly strong rebound in... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks dipped last week as net imports sank. Meanwhile, with COVID-19-related restrictions now present in a number of large states, we suspect that demand will remain low for a few months yet. 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Vaccines mean higher commodity demand in 2021 A flurry of positive news surrounding effective COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to most commodity prices in November, as a faster easing of virus containment measures next year should provide a lift to... 1st December 2020 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over supply cut, despite price rise We expect OPEC+ to extend its current 7.7m bpd supply cuts for at least another three months at its next meeting. Although prices have rallied in recent weeks on hopes of a faster recovery in demand... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell slightly last week, while implied product demand also ticked down. And, with new US virus cases still at very high levels, we think that it probably won’t be until next... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
