Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+ The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update How to think about US tariffs on oil imports This is an updated version of a report originally published on 27th November, 2024. US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a... 27th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB rate cuts, Nigeria’s optimistic budget The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) struck an optimistic tone when it cut its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% this week and we expect more easing from here. But a potential lowering of the inflation... 22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update The potential losers if AGOA is removed US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact... 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update European gas at the mercy of LNG European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
