Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks rose last week on a release of strategic reserves and a jump in net imports. Exports could fall further in the coming weeks given the need to rebuild stocks at the WTI Cushing hub... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar/oil relationship The relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil is usually negative, but over the past two months oil prices have risen and the greenback has appreciated. While this pattern may persist... 27th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tentative signs we are past the peak in energy prices The meteoric rise in energy commodity prices over the last few months lost momentum this week. Natural gas and coal prices were down particularly sharply in Europe after President Putin reiterated... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Strong exports contributed to the first drawdown in stocks in four weeks last week, supporting already-high crude prices. What’s more, stocks at the hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell and they are... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Coal is back in fashion, but not for long Coal prices are likely to remain high over the next six months as high demand weighs on already-low stocks. Prices should drop back next year, though, as demand growth moderates and supply improves. 19th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Economics How would the economy cope with electricity shortages? There is an outside risk that the UK could face some limited short-term rationing of electricity this winter if weather conditions were to be unfavourable. This risk isn’t yet significant enough to... 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Industry stalling as services reopens further The impact of global semiconductor shortages on India’s auto sector was evident in the lacklustre industrial production data for August released this week. And with energy supply constraints also... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
