Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While crude stocks fell again last week, gasoline inventories rose a little and there was a further pullback in implied gasoline demand. Given the ongoing rise in virus infections and some re... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Alarming UN report could spark more green spending The UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warned that ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions are a ‘code red for humanity’, which could give further momentum to the... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Three recent trends we expect to last We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. 12th August 2021 · 13 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests that growth in demand in the US is continuing to outpace growth in supply. However, following a strong recovery from its pandemic-induced... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Delta variant taking centre stage Concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 were the main driver of prices this week, but the impact on prices was far from uniform. Not surprisingly, oil prices slumped as many... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased last week as net imports rose, but we suspect that inventories will fall back soon as demand for oil products, such as gasoline, continues to rise. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Outlook Downhill from here After a blistering rally for much of 2021, we expect the prices of energy commodities to be easing back as we move into 2022. Oil supply, particularly from OPEC+, is set to rebound strongly over the... 3rd August 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Supply disruptions remain a key risk The recent bounce in commodity prices continued this week, helped by the ongoing depreciation in the US dollar and a series of risks on the supply side which are rearing their head. Most notably, a... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
