Canada Economics Update What if oil prices remain higher than we expect? Higher oil prices would not provide as large a boost to the Canadian economy as in the past but, at a time when GDP is already set to rise above potential and inflation is well above target, they... 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and product stocks fell last week, reflecting robust US demand. However, we think growth in product demand will slow over the course of this year in tandem with slower growth in the US... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Product demand remains very strong for the time of the year and, if gasoline demand mounts a recovery once COVID-19 cases moderate, it could get even stronger. Although, we expect that slowing... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to remain volatile for now, before falling back Energy prices will remain volatile for the next few months, but should fall back later this year as demand drops back and supply picks up. That said, the shortfall of supply over the last year or so... 1st February 2022 · 20 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The surge in oil demand included the first signs of a recovery in transport-related gasoline demand. Although, we doubt demand will remain this buoyant for too long as economic growth is set to slow. 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Sky-high commodity prices on borrowed time Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Deteriorating risk appetite adds to price headwinds Despite falls in the prices of most other risky assets, including equities, commodities held up well this week. The prices of equities and commodities tracked each other relatively closely throughout... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai tourism boost, new oil price forecasts Better times lie head for Thailand’s tourism industry after the government this week announced it would resume its quarantine-free travel scheme from 1 st February. A recovery in tourism will not only... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What if energy prices keep rising? While ongoing supply shortages have led us to revise up our forecasts for crude oil and wholesale gas prices, we still expect significant falls this year which would reduce headline inflation in major... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Energy prices to fall, but not by as much Oil prices have risen sharply since the start of 2022 and natural gas and coal prices have remained high. We continue to expect energy prices to fall this year, but the latest developments on supply... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
