Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Suez Canal toll hike, Moroccan drought Oil prices have risen even further since yesterday's OPEC+ meeting as investors’ concerns about disruptions to oil supplies from Russia mount. If sanctions are imposed on Russia's energy exports... 3rd March 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial oil stocks fell last week on the back of higher exports, lower imports and greater refinery use of crude oil. Strategic reserves also fell to their lowest since August 2002 and will... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: Some scenarios for the UK economy As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis generates inflation and external risks The key channel through which the crisis in Ukraine will impact India's economy is higher oil prices. If sustained, higher prices would harm real incomes and dampen the economic recovery, which the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Oil prices, inflation compensation & Treasuries Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think Treasury yields will resume their rise even if oil prices fall back. 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
