Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy to remain in the spotlight It is perhaps too soon to call the end of the energy price rally, but the prices of European natural gas and Chinese coal took a tumble this week as supply fears were, at least partially, allayed... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy supply squeeze to delay decline in prices Low stocks ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere have sent energy prices soaring. In turn, higher energy costs have also constrained the production of other commodities, most notably industrial... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from high energy prices Oil, gas and coal prices have reached multi-year highs in recent weeks and this Update takes a look at some of the implications for the region. In short, an improvement in Russia’s terms of trade has... 28th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks rose last week on a release of strategic reserves and a jump in net imports. Exports could fall further in the coming weeks given the need to rebuild stocks at the WTI Cushing hub... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar/oil relationship The relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil is usually negative, but over the past two months oil prices have risen and the greenback has appreciated. While this pattern may persist... 27th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tentative signs we are past the peak in energy prices The meteoric rise in energy commodity prices over the last few months lost momentum this week. Natural gas and coal prices were down particularly sharply in Europe after President Putin reiterated... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
