Commodities Weekly Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The improvement in activity growth in China has been one reason for more bullish sentiment in the oil market around the turn of the year. However, the stimulus-fuelled cyclical upturn in China’s... 8th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than... 2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been... 20th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly China policy support is not enough to lift prices Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to... 13th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Commodities Focus Europe waiting for LNG to flow The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the... 10th December 2024 · 12 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24) While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a... 10th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syria after Assad The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift... 9th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
