Commodities Weekly Demand and supply pull prices in opposing directions Energy prices continue to be pummelled by upward pressure related to fears of supply shortages and downward pressure from signs of slower economic growth, tighter monetary policy and a stronger US... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas Poland’s government has shown no signs of meeting President Putin’s demand to get gas flows restored, but we think the economy is relatively well placed to deal with a loss of Russian supplies. As... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose last week on higher imports, lower exports and less crude oil being used by refineries. Implied product demand, meanwhile, was little changed and towards the lower end... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia’s rubles demand poses upside risk to gas prices Russia’s monopoly exporter of natural gas, Gazprom, suspended gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria this week because they refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles. There is some confusion about... 29th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European growth to drag on prices It has been an unusually quiet week for commodities, with less volatility than we have come to expect. The war in Ukraine continues to provide possible stresses for supply but, for now at least, it... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly China only off-the-radar for now The war in Ukraine continued to dominate headlines, and commodity price movements, this week as peace talks fell apart and sent energy prices up sharply. However, at the same time, there are further... 14th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
