India Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis generates inflation and external risks The key channel through which the crisis in Ukraine will impact India's economy is higher oil prices. If sustained, higher prices would harm real incomes and dampen the economic recovery, which the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Oil prices, inflation compensation & Treasuries Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think Treasury yields will resume their rise even if oil prices fall back. 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the upside risk to oil prices It is not in the economic interests of either Russia or the West to use trade in energy as a weapon against each other, but that is not to say it won’t happen. If energy flows were disrupted, we think... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of life in Venezuela’s oil sector Oil production in Venezuela has been showing signs of life, and there is probably scope for further gains in the near term. But it would require a lifting of sanctions and significant investment over... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks in the US rose last week as refinery inputs fell and net imports increased. However, stocks in the WTI storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, dwindled further, causing WTI prices to rise... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High oil prices more harm than good for Lat Am Persistently high oil prices would bode ill for current account positions in much of Latin America, adding to the existing vulnerabilities in Chile. It would also keep inflation elevated, leading to... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
