Energy Watch Global refinery capacity at its limit without Russia In this Energy Watch, we argue that the refining stage of the petroleum product supply chain could become a bottleneck in crude oil supply getting through to end users in the coming months. Russia’s... 31st May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for clarity on the EU’s oil import embargo A persistent theme in energy markets is uncertainty about the outlook for the EU’s imports of energy from Russia. It does appear that some sort of embargo of oil imports will be announced, maybe as... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell again last week, but at a slower pace. Once again, lower net imports and higher refinery inputs led to the drawdown. Although both drivers became more pronounced last... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing of lockdown lifts metals prices, for now… The prices of many industrial metals (IM) picked up this week on news of an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. However, we think weak demand and improved supply in China will send IM prices... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices no longer appear to be “lifting all boats” Most commodity prices fell this week amid a general sell-off in risky assets and a stronger US dollar. That said, we think the days of higher energy prices leading to an all-encompassing rally in... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
