Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, higher... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack War in Ukraine to continue to dictate prices for now Commodity prices remain extremely volatile owing to the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine, and we doubt that they will find a clear direction anytime soon. However, assuming the war... 5th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to prices are building Signs of weaker demand in China in the latest PMI data and the announcement that the US will sell off a large chunk of its strategic oil reserve suggest that the downside risks to commodity prices are... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities High volatility to persist while war rages on Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week, as healthy profit margins appear to be driving an upturn in refinery activity. That said, high product prices are also taking their toll on consumer demand, which... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Commodities Lessons from the 1970s for commodity markets The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Countless risks hanging over commodity markets Taking the lead from energy, most commodity prices rose this week as hopes of an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine faded and Western leaders met to consider further sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Putin’s... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees The resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange this week marked the first steps towards rolling back crisis measures, but policymaking in Russia remains erratic as highlighted by President... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EU struggles to agree on next steps for energy EU leaders have struggled to agree on whether to impose more curbs on Russian energy and on how to best support households and firms in the face of spiralling energy prices. But most national... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What might be the impact of wider embargo on Russian energy? While not our base case, a complete Western ban on imports of energy commodities from Russia would probably send the prices of many soaring. We suspect that such an outcome would have some key... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week, driven by a decrease in net imports and greater refinery inputs. Demand also inched higher, but we suspect high prices will limit further gains... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
