Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European growth to drag on prices It has been an unusually quiet week for commodities, with less volatility than we have come to expect. The war in Ukraine continues to provide possible stresses for supply but, for now at least, it... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Europe turns to Africa to replace Russian gas European officials have increasingly looked to Africa to replace gas supplies from Russia. While the region’s gas producers – like Angola and Nigeria – will gain from the recent surge in global energy... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly China only off-the-radar for now The war in Ukraine continued to dominate headlines, and commodity price movements, this week as peace talks fell apart and sent energy prices up sharply. However, at the same time, there are further... 14th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub price set to ease Strong demand for LNG exports should lead to a higher average price of US natural gas this year. But we expect prices to ease back in the coming months as demand falls over the summer and output stays... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Coal, cautious consumers, the BoJ starts to relax Japan’s ban on Russian coal is unlikely to lift domestic energy prices much given that coal import prices closely track the Newcastle spot price which have fallen sharply over the past month. A bigger... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in commercial storage shot up last week, as the US government made more sales from its strategic reserve and refineries curbed output in the wake of weaker demand. With both factors set... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC oil production rose a little in March, but the group continues to underproduce. What’s more, its optimistic non-OPEC supply forecasts suggest that it has no intention of boosting output in the... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to remain buffeted by headwinds and tailwinds Last week, we suggested that the downside risks to prices were building, and these came to the fore in the past week with particularly hawkish US Fed minutes published on Wednesday and ongoing COVID... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo? A full embargo on Russian energy would force Germany to ration gas supplies to its most gas-intensive companies. This would have unpredictable knock-on effects which would cause a recession. While the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
