Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose this week owing to an unusually large release from the strategic reserve and a slump in crude exports. Interestingly, implied product demand ticked up, after being... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply concerns to dominate for some time yet Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but... 7th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Stagflation taking hold The slump in German retail sales in April is a reminder than surging inflation is a headache not only for the ECB but also for households whose purchasing power is being eroded. Stagflation is... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost The EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be painful for Russia, but it won't be a disaster for as long as commodity prices remain high and Russia can export... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three market implications of the EU’s embargo on Russian oil We think that, at the margin, the EU’s embargo on Russian oil, announced yesterday, adds to reasons to expect the yields of long-dated government bonds to rise, equities to struggle and commodity... 31st May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Watch Global refinery capacity at its limit without Russia In this Energy Watch, we argue that the refining stage of the petroleum product supply chain could become a bottleneck in crude oil supply getting through to end users in the coming months. Russia’s... 31st May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for clarity on the EU’s oil import embargo A persistent theme in energy markets is uncertainty about the outlook for the EU’s imports of energy from Russia. It does appear that some sort of embargo of oil imports will be announced, maybe as... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell again last week, but at a slower pace. Once again, lower net imports and higher refinery inputs led to the drawdown. Although both drivers became more pronounced last... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing of lockdown lifts metals prices, for now… The prices of many industrial metals (IM) picked up this week on news of an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. However, we think weak demand and improved supply in China will send IM prices... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices no longer appear to be “lifting all boats” Most commodity prices fell this week amid a general sell-off in risky assets and a stronger US dollar. That said, we think the days of higher energy prices leading to an all-encompassing rally in... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
