OPEC Watch Any OPEC+ cut will not be as large as it seems OPEC+ may announce a major cut to oil production quotas tomorrow. But with the current quota not being met, the actual hit to oil supply will be much smaller. We estimate that a 1m-barrel-per-day (bpd... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Making sense of sky-high coal prices in Asia Thermal coal prices in Asia rose to record highs in early September and have only fallen back slightly since. This was despite no major supply disruptions and in contrast to falls in other energy... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears trump supply fears, for now Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More evidence of stagflation, but no gas price cap yet Figures released this week brought yet more evidence that the euro-zone is heading for recession. But given that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong, we doubt that will stop the ECB from... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Constrained supply to limit the falls in energy prices Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect... 14th September 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy supply concerns take a back seat… for now Energy markets took centre stage this week as demand concerns outweighed supply concerns, dragging prices down. Even the decision by OPEC+ on Monday to cut oil output quotas for October by 100,000 bpd... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Utility price cap cuts inflation, limits recession and lifts debt It seems that the size and structure of the Prime Minister’s policy to freeze utility prices is broadly as expected and will reduce inflation and limit the size of the recession. But it will come at... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A revived Iran nuclear deal would tie OPEC’s hands A revived Iran nuclear deal would quickly bring an additional 1mn bpd of crude oil production online, which would directly weigh on global oil prices. But the bigger impact would be to make it less... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Soaring energy costs, wage inflation trending higher The surge in natural gas prices amid supply concerns this week piled on the economic gloom for the euro-zone and we have revised our growth forecasts down further. But price pressures remain intense... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
