Energy Update High US fuel prices could boost crude exports US petroleum product prices have risen again, mainly due to refinery-side supply constraints. We think this will translate into fewer product exports, but potentially even more crude oil exports. 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy price caps could knock off 1%-pt from inflation The proposed price caps on thermal coal and natural gas would knock off around one to 1.25%-pts from overall inflation though the full impact would only materialise in the second half of next year. 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in commercial and strategic crude stocks dragged total reserves to their lowest level since November 2001, contributing to a rise in prices today. Gasoline and distillate stocks also... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs diverge, but point to persistent weakness China’s official and Caixin October manufacturing PMIs diverged, but the crux of the matter is that both are painting a picture of weak industrial demand. With the services sector also struggling due... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dance to the dollar’s tune Most commodity prices tracked the US dollar this week, falling sharply at the start of the week before staging a partial recovery in the latter half. Further dollar appreciation is likely given that... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event Climate Drop-In: Forget COP27 – Economic and market forces will drive the green transition 1667489400 We don’t think COP27 is likely to achieve much.
Energy Watch Oil demand growth to stagnate, not collapse In this Energy Watch, we assess whether concerns about oil demand during a recession are justified. The macroeconomic backdrop has deteriorated substantially and we expect the global economy to topple... 19th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Oil supply to be constrained into next year We have lowered our estimate of global oil supply in 2023 after OPEC+’s announcement that it would cut production quotas from November. As a result, we no longer expect the oil market to be in a... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Primer on our dedicated Climate Economics research The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new dedicated Climate Economics research. It is split into three sections. This first looks at how our coverage will be structured and what topics we will... 10th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
