Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event Climate Drop-In: Forget COP27 – Economic and market forces will drive the green transition 1667489400 We don’t think COP27 is likely to achieve much.
Energy Watch Oil demand growth to stagnate, not collapse In this Energy Watch, we assess whether concerns about oil demand during a recession are justified. The macroeconomic backdrop has deteriorated substantially and we expect the global economy to topple... 19th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Oil supply to be constrained into next year We have lowered our estimate of global oil supply in 2023 after OPEC+’s announcement that it would cut production quotas from November. As a result, we no longer expect the oil market to be in a... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Primer on our dedicated Climate Economics research The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new dedicated Climate Economics research. It is split into three sections. This first looks at how our coverage will be structured and what topics we will... 10th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch Any OPEC+ cut will not be as large as it seems OPEC+ may announce a major cut to oil production quotas tomorrow. But with the current quota not being met, the actual hit to oil supply will be much smaller. We estimate that a 1m-barrel-per-day (bpd... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Making sense of sky-high coal prices in Asia Thermal coal prices in Asia rose to record highs in early September and have only fallen back slightly since. This was despite no major supply disruptions and in contrast to falls in other energy... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears trump supply fears, for now Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More evidence of stagflation, but no gas price cap yet Figures released this week brought yet more evidence that the euro-zone is heading for recession. But given that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong, we doubt that will stop the ECB from... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Constrained supply to limit the falls in energy prices Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect... 14th September 2022 · 14 mins read
