UK Economics Update Oil prices another brake on the economic recovery The recent surge in the oil price to just shy of $100pb will act as yet another brake on the UK’s economic recovery this year just as the fiscal tightening is reaching its most intense phase. 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to drop to $60pb in 2011 We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to get a near-term boost from higher oil prices In light of the recent upward revision to our near-term profile for oil prices, we have pushed up our Russian growth and inflation forecasts for 2011. But the economy remains vulnerable to the fall in... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity super-cycle, or bubble? The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: crunch time approaching for the CBR Russian banks have become more willing to lend in recent months. Much still depends on oil prices, but a strengthening banking sector raises the chances that the rapid expansion of the monetary base... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices still set to drop back in the second half The fact that oil prices have remained firm despite the appreciation in the dollar has prompted us to raise our end-2010 and end-2011 forecasts from $50 per barrel (pb) to $60pb. But these numbers are... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it matter which currency oil is priced in? The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How credible is OPEC's new oil price target? OPEC’s informal target of $75-80 per barrel (pb) might be a reasonable starting point for an assumption about the medium-term outlook for oil prices, but it is certainly not the last word. Our view is... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil prices? Many of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the commodity bubble have recently slashed their oil price forecasts. We are still happy with our long-held view that crude will average $50 per barrel... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How low could oil prices go? Oil prices have fallen to within a whisker of our target of $50 per barrel (for Brent), which we had expected to see in the first quarter of next year. For now we are leaving our forecast for average... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
