Commodities Update What next for oil prices? Despite this week’s partial recovery, we continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude to drop back below $90 by the end of the year, as global demand slows, the Middle East risk premium... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: where's the oil price boost? The fact that Russian growth slowed in Q1 despite the surge in oil prices suggests that all is not well in Emerging Europe’s largest economy. Growth should accelerate over the second half of the year... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How does Russia benefit from higher oil prices? If the recent spike in oil prices is sustained, it could add as much as 1.5% to real GDP growth in Russia this year. But while higher commodity prices may boost growth in the near term, they work... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does $100pb oil mean for the US? The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from the oil price spike The recent spike in oil prices will impact on different economies within Latin America in different ways. Although it is difficult to say with any great precision, the biggest winner is likely to be... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Oil price rise comes at a bad time The rise in oil prices has raised fears about the prospects for the economic recovery. Obviously the economy has changed a great deal since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, when sharp oil price... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar continues to languish Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How does this oil price spike compare with history? The current spike in oil prices has inevitably led to comparisons with other episodes when prices have surged over a relatively short period. The last five such episodes were all followed by global... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Oil prices compound inflation concerns Markets are concerned that rising oil prices will lift inflation and hit economic growth in Asia. Relative to their economies, Korea and Taiwan are the biggest net oil importers within the region but... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another headwind Japan could do without We expect the latest spike in oil prices to be short-lived as fears over supply from the Middle East and North Africa start to ease. Nonetheless, Japanese inflation will pick up further in the coming... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most vulnerable to high oil prices? India and Thailand would struggle most within Asia if oil prices were to remain at their current level. China is less reliant on oil than most in the region. In general, Asia’s strong growth would... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have oil prices already overshot? Another day, another $5 on the cost of a barrel of crude. At this rate it will not be long before prices revisit the highs above $140 seen in 2008. Given the pace at which markets are moving and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recession The turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a chorus of warnings that the world economy could be dragged back into recession if the price of oil continues to climb. We were already expecting global... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the Libyan crisis mean for oil prices? Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global economic and market fall-out from the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that the unrest has spread to... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
