Commodities Update OPEC’s quota hike all but irrelevant to oil price outlook OPEC’s decision today to raise the official target for the cartel’s oil output to close to the current level of production will make no real difference on the ground, especially as it reportedly did... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC sidelined as global slowdown offsets fears over Iran The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A chink of light at the end of a torrid month Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Markets clutching at straws Commodity prices ended November little changed, thanks to the technical rebound in WTI and the recovery in risk assets generally late in the month. The markets have taken the view that the cut in the... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread returning to reality The gap between the cost of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is finally closing, but the episode has been another example of how speculative pressures can... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Fragile recovery already faltering The recovery in most commodity prices in October now seems like ancient history. The hopes generated by the apparent pick-up in Chinese demand, renewed talk of a third round of quantitative easing... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Too little, too late We do not expect the recent respite for risky assets to last. The outlook for the advanced economies is bleak and the growth rate of corporate earnings is set to slow. Investors’ enthusiasm for risk... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar hedges its bets With oil prices likely to fall further next year, the Qatari authorities’ decision to hedge part of their 2012 oil exports looks wise. While the government’s balance sheet is amongst the healthiest in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodities still a distinct asset class? The increasingly tight correlations between the prices of commodities and those of other assets, notably equities, have prompted some to question whether commodities can still be regarded as an asset... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Poor demand prospects mean prices have further to fall The sharp falls in commodity prices in the third quarter illustrate the importance of macroeconomic and financial market factors on the demand side, which once again have more than offset the... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall further despite index rebasing (and Iran) We have been asked one or both of the same two oil-related questions by several clients this week. In summary, what are the implications of the addition of Brent to the basket for the Dow-Jones UBS... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
