Commodities Update Iran’s latest position bearish (sic) for oil prices The apparent escalation in tensions between Iran and the EU over the weekend has been widely interpreted as bullish for oil prices. However, Iran’s position looks increasingly weak and the regime may... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will the Iranian oil embargo be? Oil prices have jumped on the announcement that Iran intends to suspend crude exports to six EU countries, taking Brent back above $120 per barrel. We expect the impact to be short-lived for three... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prices to drop sharply on euro break-up fears Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the US will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a “hard landing” in China, and faith... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in Brent likely to be temporary At least half a dozen explanations have been advanced for the recent jump in the price of Brent crude oil, whether in absolute terms or relative to the traditional US benchmark, West Texas... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Can the good times continue to roll? “Risky” assets have made a bright start to 2012. Investors have welcomed a recent improvement in the US economic data, signs of greater fiscal coordination in the euro-zone as well as more support... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack New Year rally built on shaky foundations January was a better month for commodities, supported by hopes of an improvement in the global macroeconomic and financial backdrop. However, the recovery in the US economy has yet to convince even... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Growth fears drive gilt yields lower The further drop in gilt yields appears to have reflected declining expectations for GDP growth and related falls in long-term interest rate expectations, rather than fiscal developments. Indeed, the... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Oil Minister’s comments point to higher spending in 2012 Comments earlier this week from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi indicating that the government is comfortable with a crude oil price of $100pb (up from $70-80 previously) suggests that public... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi comments point to lower oil prices The publication of OPEC’s monthly oil market report today has been overshadowed by two comments from Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. First, Mr al-Naimi confirmed that Saudi output could be increased... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three Iran scenarios for the oil price The main driver of global oil prices so far this year has been concern about the potential disruption to supplies from the Middle East as a result of tensions with Iran. This Update looks at three... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really behind the rewidening of the Brent-WTI spread? Most analysts attribute the renewed increase in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and WTI over the last few days primarily to changes in the composition of the two major commodity... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More rollercoaster than super-cycle Commodity prices are ending 2011 with a whimper. Over the year as a whole the only major commodities to show significant increases are Brent crude and gold. Most components of the closely-watched S&P... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
