Africa Economics Update Angolan SWF is a (small) step in the right direction On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread getting silly again The widening differential between the prices of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is increasingly hard to justify in terms of the fundamentals of the oil... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian oil rush points to “twin-speed” growth Development of the Colombian oil sector will provide an important prop to economic growth over the coming years, but it is not unambiguously good news, particularly for non-commodity exporters. So... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi reports add to downward pressure on oil prices Reports that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil supplies may be little new but they support our view that prices are set to fall sharply. As it happens, the Gulf state has already ramped up... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher oil output to provide a boost to Saudi growth Saudi Arabia’s recent commitment to maintain oil output at record levels means that our forecast for GDP growth this year is looking too pessimistic. We now expect the economy to expand by around 4.5%... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s bond rally last? The impressive rally in dollar-denominated bond markets across the GCC over the past year has seen yields in Qatar and Abu Dhabi hit record lows in recent months, while even those in debt-ridden Dubai... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will bring oil prices back down again? A coordinated release of official stocks is one possible trigger for a correction in oil prices, but we still think that it is neither imminent nor necessary. A more realistic assessment of the... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil and coal prices face multitude of downside risks Oil prices have been boosted by hopes of additional global policy stimulus and fears of a worsening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but we expect these supports to be shortlived. Possible... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent still likely to end the year below $100 We have revised our near-term forecasts for the price of Brent crude higher to reflect the ongoing support from hopes of global policy stimulus and fears over tensions in the Middle East. However... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Olympics to help sales maintain momentum After a slow start, it looks like the Olympic Games have provided a reasonable boost to high street spending. 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
No respite in sight The short-term outlook for economic growth across the euro-zone is poor. All member states are likely to contract in 2013, if not 2012. The recession in the euro-zone will also act as a major drag on... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Recovery in oil prices is poorly supported The partial recovery in oil prices over the last month is based on shaky ground. An immediate meltdown in the euro-zone may have been averted, but Europe is sliding into a deep recession and the risks... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syrian crisis: are fears of oil supply disruptions justified? The increase in oil prices over the past few weeks has been partly blamed on the escalation in tensions in Syria, which has raised fresh concerns of supply disruptions. But unless the Syrian crisis... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown flows into summer The economic slowdown that began in the spring months has continued into the summer. We estimate that GDP grew at an annualised rate of around 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
