Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How much will Saudi Arabia benefit from strong Asian growth? Saudi Arabia’s growing trade ties with Asia bode well for the economy’s growth prospects over the coming years. While we expect advanced economies to remain sluggish, Emerging Asia should grow at... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico edges towards energy reform Confirmation that Mexico’s governing PRI party will support reforms to open up the state-owned oil company Pemex has cleared a major obstacle to private sector investment in the energy industry... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia, Gazprom and the shale revolution The development of shale gas in Europe is unlikely to have a significant impact on Russia’s energy exports over the next couple of years. But in time, it could prove to be the final nail in the coffin... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks medium-term deficiencies A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next two years. But an overreliance on the hydrocarbons sector, coupled with perennial concerns over... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Brent spreads be justified by fundamentals? The spreads between the prices of Brent and other crude benchmarks such as WTI and Dubai have recently widened to levels which are hard to justify on the basis of underlying supply and demand. This... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Risks to oil prices remain on the downside The improvements in global economic conditions indicated by the latest manufacturing surveys, as well as the positive mood in financial markets, have already prompted us to revise our near-term oil... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Has the Saudi oil price target moved to $110? We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back below $100 this year, despite recent speculation that cuts to Saudi production signal an increased willingness to allow oil prices to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC decisions won’t prevent oil price falls This week’s OPEC meeting will be dominated by the tricky choice of a new Secretary-General, while the decision on output should be relatively simple. We agree with the consensus that the notional... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s the right benchmark for US oil prices? The US Energy Information Administration’s recent decision to switch to Brent rather than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as its reference oil price has reignited the debate about the appropriate... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global growth prospects beyond 2020 Some commentators argue that growth of world per capita income over the coming few decades will be much lower than in the past, because technological progress has slowed or because of the depletion of... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Middle East break-evens won’t set a floor on oil prices The recent increases in the level of the oil price required to balance government budgets for the major Gulf producers are often cited as a reason to expect the cost of crude to remain high. In... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global oil prices to fall further and remain lower We still expect the price of a barrel of Brent to drop back to around $85 next year, despite threats of a complete halt to Iranian oil exports. Our forecast would also be well below the “fair price”... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
