Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are oil prices set to take off due to Syria risks? Fears that Western intervention in Syria could increase the risks of a broader Middle East conflict have already put some upward pressure on the price of Brent crude. However, even if tensions do... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are commodities to the tapering of QE3? The prospect of a reduction in US monetary stimulus has already begun to undermine the prices of many risky assets, from developed market equities to emerging market currencies. However, this prospect... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much does OPEC matter? The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But the bigger picture is that the cartel now ranks no higher than a... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the weakness in oil prices? The recent slump in the cost of Brent crude can be explained by the fragility of the global economy, without appealing to the influence of industry-specific factors that are more likely to be... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker oil production to weigh on Gulf growth We expect oil production in the Gulf to remain lower this year than in 2012, which will be a drag on annual GDP growth. But even so, we don’t think it will lead to a collapse in overall economic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: first tweaks to the fiscal rule The decision by Russia’s Finance Ministry to increase the oil price forecast used in the budget appears to be an effort to paper over shortfalls in non-oil revenues, including from lower-than-expected... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US recovery due to more than just the energy boom The boom in domestic energy production and the indirect benefits to the rest of the economy from lower natural gas prices have played only a minor role in the US economy's strong performance compared... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the implications of oil's fall to below $100pb The drop in oil prices over the past month will limit the room for fiscal stimulus in response to the slump in Russia’s economy since the turn of the year and is another reason to expect the recovery... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will 2013 be a rerun of 2012 for oil prices? The recent weakness supports our view that oil prices have been unsustainably high given the fragility of the global economic recovery. Over the next few years we continue to expect $100 to become a... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Corn leads commodities lower as demand disappoints The collapse in the prices of US grains has received the most attention recently, but commodity prices in general continued to fall in March. The main drivers of this weakness were worries about the... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Much lower oil prices needed for strong recovery The $10 decline in the price of a barrel of Brent since early February reflects the faltering in the world economy and, most recently, the fresh worries about the euro-zone triggered by the crisis in... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
