Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Detente between the US and Iran to undermine oil prices The markets and media have understandably been focused on developments in Syria for the last few months. However, signs of a possible thaw in the relationship between Washington and Tehran could have... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer? The surge in US oil and gas production in recent years has fuelled expectations that the country could eventually become a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US already runs trade surpluses in coal... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi oil sector’s drag on growth starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s activity data for June provide further evidence that the slowdown in growth over the past year or so probably bottomed out in the second quarter. The non-oil sector continues to grow at... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could be the long term impacts of the shale boom? Shale oil and gas has transformed the energy outlook in the US. However, the impact on the rest of the world has been negligible so far. Other countries are finding it difficult to replicate the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set to slow as oil boom fades Growth in the Gulf is set to slow over the next couple of years as the past decade’s oil boom starts to fade. At the same time, oil prices are likely to fall too. This is unlikely to pose a serious... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further rises in oil prices would undermine global growth The recent rise in oil prices is not large enough to be a significant drag on global growth, particularly given that Brent crude has increased much less than WTI. However, if prices rise much further... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Ample supply to weigh again on oil prices Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and fears of disruption in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. Ample supply against a backdrop of still... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's behind the narrowing in the Brent-WTI spread? The collapse in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) primarily reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
