Commodities Chart Pack US dollar strength weighs on commodities Almost all commodity prices fell in September, largely in response to the strength of the US dollar and, in many cases, a strong supply outlook. Signs of slower Chinese and euro-zone economic growth... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cheaper oil a net positive for global growth Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which countries stand to gain most from lower oil prices? Lower oil prices should provide a boost to the economies of Emerging Asia. However, some countries are likely to benefit more than others. Indonesia and Thailand stand to gain the most, while Malaysia... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt's economic recovery gathers pace Having suffered following last summer’s “second revolution”, the Egyptian economy is finally starting to gather steam. Activity has been buoyed by recent political stability and the government’s Gulf... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Focus on carbon emissions to weigh on coal and oil prices This weekend’s protests about climate change and yesterday’s UN summit are just the latest signs that the issue of climate change is being taken more seriously again. Whilst any sort of meaningful... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector drives sharp Q2 slowdown in Saudi Arabia The Saudi Arabian economy slowed sharply between Q1 and Q2, largely due to weakness in the oil sector. The data also provided further signs that Saudi consumers may be struggling. Looking ahead, it’s... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling commodity prices to help keep EM inflation subdued Recent falls in the prices of oil and a number of agricultural commodities add to the reasons to expect EM inflation to stay muted over the coming months. But while in aggregate we think that... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities demand unlikely to get a boost anytime soon The increase in the flash PMI for China has helped to assuage fears about a hard landing. However, the index is still low by historical standards and the fall in the euro-zone’s flash PMI highlights... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy subsidy reform in the Gulf is likely to be slow-going Large energy subsidies in the GCC lead to a number of distortions in their economies, including smaller current account and fiscal surpluses as well as weaker investment in the non-hydrocarbon sector... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria's export sector to continue dragging on growth The weakness of Nigeria’s export sector is down to a variety of factors, including a lack of competitiveness, falling oil prices and the expansion of shale oil extraction in the US. These factors... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower oil prices are a problem for Lat Am, not the Gulf Major oil producers in the Gulf stand to lose the most in absolute terms from the recent fall in prices, but conservative management of the oil sector means that the region will simply save less. By... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a “yes” vote mean for UK oil & gas production? The general economic uncertainty created by a “yes” vote in Scotland’s independence referendum could hamper investment in the oil and gas sector too. Nonetheless, an independent Scottish government... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on the MENA region The recent sharp drop in oil prices is unlikely to be a major headache for the Gulf economies although, if sustained, it will mean that there will be less room for fiscal policy to provide the same... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will public spending really reach a record next year? Ministries’ spending requests for the coming fiscal year have reached a record high, which might raise some questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, these requests... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
