Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 1707318000 Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?
JODI Energy Demand Monitor JODI Energy Demand Monitor JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly LNG frozen out of Red Sea, but gas prices to fall further Natural gas prices fell sharply this week, despite Qatar's decision to avoid sending LNG tankers through the Red Sea. We think the relative calm in the natural gas market reflects the fact that gas... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Middle East tensions to keep a floor under oil prices The Middle East continued to be the focus of commodity markets, although most prices ended the week either flat or lower. That said, the escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024 This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain... 5th January 2024 · 0 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A perfect storm at sea The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
