Climate Economics Monthly El Niño + global warming = long-term EM headache “The Boy” is back Much ink has been spilled – not least by ourselves – on the potential impacts of the return of El Niño conditions on commodities and economies. It’s fair to say that some of the... 27th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are other markets right to ignore oil’s rally? Equity, bond, and FX investors seem to have shrugged off the recent rise in oil prices. We wouldn’t be surprised if that continued even if prices rose further. 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly A last-minute Black Sea grains deal is not guaranteed For the most part, commodity prices rose this week. A weaker US dollar in the wake of a lower-than-expected June CPI reading in the US was a key factor boosting prices. Not surprisingly, the prices of... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain strong in June China’s commodity import volumes remained high in June, helped by the economic re-opening, but they were held back by softening input-related demand for the manufacture of goods for export. As... 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.
Energy Update Asia LNG price premium to TTF to persist The spot price of Asia LNG should trade at a premium to Europe’s TTF natural gas benchmark at end-2023 given stronger demand growth in Asia and the fact that LNG is more costly to produce. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much... 6th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly US crude exports rise; China’s demand to drive prices There wasn’t a consistent direction to commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia rose, indicating stronger competition for LNG cargos. Meanwhile, most industrial metals prices... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to buck the downbeat trend We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect... 29th June 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growing upside risks to our grains price forecasts With the Fed still hinting at more interest rate increases, the dollar strengthened and contributed to declines across most commodity prices this week. One of the few prices that did increase was the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Waiting for stimulus, heatwave highlights climate risks Aside from token 10 basis point rate cuts and an extension of EV tax breaks, there hasn’t been much in the way of policy stimulus yet. We still think a more meaningful, infrastructure-focused fiscal... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Aviation will account for the bulk of oil demand growth Despite jet fuel being a fairly small share of total oil consumption, we suspect it will drive a large chunk of the 1.4m bpd growth in crude oil demand we anticipate this year. We think jet fuel... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
