Europe Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector a drag on Saudi economy in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3. The oil sector was a drag on the economy, but this was offset by stronger growth in the non-oil sector. Going forward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices to tip the euro-zone into deflation The recent drop in oil prices looks set to tip euro-zone CPI inflation into negative territory over the coming months, increasing the risk of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Can OPEC keep prices from falling further? The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 27 th November, should be the most interesting since the change from individual quotas to a group target in early... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Saudi Arabia respond to the fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia is likely to resist pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output in an effort to arrest the recent slide in prices. After all, the Saudi economy is in a stronger position to... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent heading for $70 The dip in the price of Brent below $80 per barrel in the last 24 hours is consistent with our long-held view that the world will soon be awash with oil. Indeed, global oil prices look set to hit $70... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Improvement in current account position here to stay The recent sharp falls in gold and oil prices could feasibly push India’s current account into surplus over the coming months. Given that India’s large external deficit made its markets among the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why is cheaper oil not boosting the S&P 500 more? While the decline of nearly 30% in the price of oil since 20th June ought to boost the US economy, we think the muted reaction in the stock market – the S&P 500 has gained only 4% – makes sense. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How should bond markets respond to lower oil prices? While the slump in oil prices will reduce inflation in the major economies, it should also boost economic growth – at least where inflation is not dangerously low to begin with. The net effect on... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will the slump in oil prices affect the world economy? The collapse in oil prices over the past few months will not transform the outlook for the world economy, but it should act as an “automatic stabiliser”, providing some reassurance to those fearing... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
